Globe-trotting Arafat takes statehood off the map
By Robert Fisk in Beirut, 19 August 2000,
The Independent.
How many countries do you have to visit to declare a state? Does an
albatross follow Chairman Yasser Arafat to Iran, France, South Africa,
China, Russia, Indonesia, Japan?
There were times, after he returned this week, that one was tempted to
ask whether Arafat the "terrorist" - the pre-Oslo, pre-"peace" Arafat
- would have garnered more support in the Third World than the 1993
"peace" partner of the White House lawn. The West may rest assured.
The Russians, the Indonesians - even the Egyptians - have understood
the equations of what we call the peace "process". Mr Arafat should
not declare a state on 13 September and, almost certainly, will not do
so.
"Why does he tour the world to gather support for his 'independent'
state before organising the sovereign country which he wishes to
rule?" a Palestinian refugee official asked yesterday. "Any normal
ruler would seek his people's support for such a step before he
announced independence." So - in the destitute, broken world of the
Palestinian diaspora - goes the argument. Why did Mr Arafat need to
travel to Asia to announce that he might "reassess" his declaration of
a state?
In the Palestinian underworld, the answers seem quite clear. Aware
that he would not receive recognition for his "independent" state that
he promised the Palestinians on his triumphal return from the doomed
Camp David talks, Mr Arafat decided to undertake a world tour to prove
to his people that the declaration of statehood could not be made on
the date he promised. But, rather than admit that his promise was a
lie, he preferred to allow the presidents and kings to urge
"moderation" and "restraint" - which is what the US and, of course,
Israel, wanted.
The details of the Camp David talks remain officially secret, but Mr
Arafat's concessions - for which read, capitulation - are obvious. The
documents which leaked out showed that he accepted the presence of the
Israeli army in the Jordan valley and the right of Israel on
Palestinian land to use its army when it feared a danger to the State
of Israel.
There would be no Arab army - neither Palestinian nor any other kind -
in the West Bank and Gaza. The Israeli air force would have the right
to fly over the skies of "independent" Palestine. There would be
Israeli early warning stations on Palestinian territory. On the
ground, the Israelis would continue to hold not less than 5 per cent
of the land, including the settlements which cut the West Bank off
from Jerusalem and which also cut the West Bank in two.
So much for sovereignty. But a state? Gone would be American support
and funds. Gone would be any American "leverage" over Israel.
Forgotten would be any future negotiations over Jerusalem and the
"right of return" of 3 million refugees. Abandoned would be any hope
of European support for a state.
The US and Israel believe that a postponement of talks on Jerusalem
and the "right of return" is the only way forward. And - aware that
he and his acolytes will lose the millions of dollars of US and
European support - Mr Arafat is in no mood to commit financial
suicide. "We will declare a Palestinian state" became - in Indonesia -
a determination to "reassess" the declaration. A visit to Moscow
received a cold response from President Vladimir Putin, who urged
"further thought" before such a step was taken.
Of course, this is not just about American pressure on its world
allies. Even Egypt refused to accept a negation of the Palestinian
demand for sovereignty over the Muslim holy landmarks in Jerusalem.
Everyone knows that postponement - delay, suspension - of Mr Arafat's
demand for a capital in Jerusalem is an incendiary topic. But a
deferment of statehood might still be possible.
Thus, Mr Arafat has called for a meeting of the Palestine National
Council next month. In the meantime, the Palestinian "minister" for
the economy has warned that the Palestinians could not withstand an
Israeli economic blockade - one of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak's
threats - without starvation.
"If Arafat wanted to declare a state, he would have done it and then
sought international support," said an official of the Democratic
Front for the Liberation of Palestine yesterday. "Instead, he travels
round the world to see if he'd get support before he consults his own
people." And so, all eyes will be upon the meeting of the Council,
which must surely urge "moderation". "And then he can say that the
democratically elected representatives of his own people have urged
restraint. This will mean postponement of statehood. So much for the
13th September deadline."
Cynical, perhaps. But not without reason. With the Americans already
calling for asecond summit "peace" conference in November, the
Palestinian chairman can insist on a very final last chance for the
"peace of the brave"; and postpone the "state" which he has already
declared twice before. The Arafat world tour may have looked
impressive. It may also have been part of the window-dressing for
another Palestinian "concession". Stand by, then, for the postponement
of the very last deadline.
