http://www3.haaretz.co.il/eng/scripts/article.asp?id=63356&mador=1
Monday, December 13, 1999
Israel may seek $20 b. for pullout
By Amos Harel, Ha'aretz Military Correspondent
Israel will ask the United States for nearly $20 billion in defense aid to put
a peace treaty with Syria into effect, according to preliminary unofficial
assessments made by the defense establishment in the few days since
last week's announcement of the resumption of Israeli-Syrian talks.
Defense officials say, however, that Israel will have a very difficult time
persuading the United States to grant it such a large amount in aid, even if
it is a one-time grant.
The Israeli aid package request will be based on two main points:
- Aid of $10 billion for the process of withdrawing from the Golan Heights
and redeploying the IDF.
- Aid to build the "army of peace," involving the purchase of advanced
combat and intelligence equipment, which will help the IDF execute
major missions after the evacuation of the Golan. This will require about
$10 billion (Israel received $3.2 billion from the United States to evacuate
Sinai in the peace treaty with Egypt, which in today's terms is between $8
billion and $10 billion).
The view in the IDF is that the army will have no problem evacuating the
camps on the Golan Heights within three years (a possible timetable,
raised in internal discussions, for carrying out the settlement with Syria) if
the needed funds are available.
At the same time, a senior defense source told Ha'aretz that the figures
did represent a detailed or official calculation. He said the defense
establishment would shortly begin discussions aimed at formulating the
principles of the redeployment. "At this stage, no substantive figure has
been mentioned," he said.
The assessments concerning the funds that will be required to build the
"army of peace" were first worked out in 1995 and presented to the
Americans during one of the rounds of talks between Israel and Syria.
About 18 months ago, a delegation led by the director-general of the
Defense Ministry at the time, Major General (Res.) Ilan Biran, presented
an IDF "modernization plan" to senior American officials. That plan,
which referred to several alternative levels of aid, worked out to between
$7 billion and $12 billion.
The United States showed an interest in the Israeli ideas, but no official
request for aid was made.
In the meantime, the breakthrough with Syria is delaying a final discussion
of the IDF's withdrawal plan from Lebanon - but the IDF says that this
has now become slightly less urgent, as the renewal of the talks with
Syria makes it likely that the pullback will be part of a larger settlement,
requiring less preparation than a unilateral withdrawal.
(c) copyright 1999 Ha'aretz. All Rights Reserved
http://www3.haaretz.co.il/eng/scripts/article.asp?id=63646&mador=1&datee=12/19/99
Sunday, December 19, 1999
U.S. aid on Syria peace pact expected to top $20 billion
By Nitzan Horowitz, Ha'aretz Correspondent
WASHINGTON - Despite statements by U.S. Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright that financial matters were not discussed at last
week's Syrian-Israeli summit in Washington and that no promises were
made, White House spokesman Joe Lockhart has said that America is
prepared to give aid to Israel and Syria in order to help them cover the
costs of peace.
"Obviously a stable Middle East living in peace is an interest of ours. I
think that America will give aid and assistance and that the international
community will join these efforts," said Lockhart. Even Albright said at
the end of the summit that "there has never been an agreement in the
Middle East which did not include some sort of American aid."
Washington has made a number of estimates of the cost of aid. Dr.
Richard Hass of the Brookings Institution said that he expects American
aid under an agreement to reach "an 11 figure sum" (more than $10
billion). Other sources estimate that the sum will top $20 billion.
The summit did wonders for the American opinion of Syria - one of
President Hafez Assad's central goals in the process. With the summit's
end came a reason to be cheerful: the World Bank announced its first
project in Syria - an investment of $1 million in an irrigation project. Syria
is currently suffering from its worse drought since the 1950s.
Albright has made it clear that any American aid to Syria will be
connected to the fight against terrorism. "Both sides understand that
terrorist acts will not disrupt the peace process," she said.
National Security Adviser Sandy Berger confirmed that the United States
was pressuring Syria to restrain the Hezbollah in South Lebanon. "We
have joined in the pressure on Syria to use its influence to constrain the
Hezbollah," Berger said.
In preparation for the next round of talks on January 3, the American
peace team headed by Dennis Ross will start its preparatory work with
both sides.
In Washington they are saying that the talks were serious and conducted
in a businesslike manner. "Nobody left or threatened to leave or threw
around ultimatums," said an American official. With hindsight, even
Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Shara's opening speech at the talks is
being seen in a positive light. His talk of a "dialogue of civilization and an
honorable competition in various domains - the political, cultural,
scientific and economic," is being interpreted by the Americans as a
vision of peace the likes of which have never been heard from Syria.
(c) copyright 1999 Ha'aretz. All Rights Reserved
