Historical Background: For three
decades, south Lebanon has been the site of armed conflict of
varying intensity. Initially, the war involved assaults against
northern Israel initiated by the various Palestinian guerrilla
organizations operating from south Lebanon and retaliatory raids by
the Israel Defense Force (IDF). Israel invaded south Lebanon in
March 1978, prompting UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 425
calling for Israel´s complete unconditional withdrawal. The IDF
pulled out six months later, leaving a number of cantons under the
control of the Army of Free Lebanon, later known as the South
Lebanon Army (SLA). Israel invaded Lebanon again in 1982, driving as
far north as Beirut, in a bid to push the Palestinians and the
Syrians out of the country altogether and to install a client
government that would sign a peace treaty with Israel. The plan
backfired. While the PLO was defeated and departed Beirut, the
Syrians remained, and the invasion led to the founding of Hezbollah,
which has proven to be a far more formidable foe than the
Palestinians. In 1985, the IDF redeployed to the present occupation
zone perimeters, a strip of 1,000 square kilometers along the
Lebanese-Israeli border varying between three and 20 kilometers in
width.
The South Lebanon Army: The SLA is a mercenary militia
commanded by General Antoine Lahd, a Lebanese national. Financed,
equipped, and controlled by Israel, the SLA serves as a proxy force
for Israel. Originally largely Christian, the SLA today is comprised
of some 1,500 fighters, most of whom are Druze and Shia Muslims
either press-ganged into joining or recruited as mercenaries. In
coordination with Israeli agents, the SLA mans checkpoints, conducts
house-to-house searches, and runs the detention center at Khiam. As
indicated by the increasing number of SLA troops surrendering to
Lebanese authorities, the SLA´s morale has deteriorated as
casualties have mounted and as withdrawal by the estimated 1,200 IDF
troops seems more likely.
Hezbollah (Party of God): Founded in 1982, Hezbollah-aided by
Iran and Syria-spearheads the Lebanese resistance to the Israeli
occupation. The military wing of Hezbollah, the Islamic Resistance
(IR), fields approximately 300 seasoned fighters and also draws upon
some 3,000 part-time fighters who live in the Shia Muslim-dominated
areas in south Lebanon, the southern suburbs of Beirut, and the
Beqa´a Valley. While opposing the peace process generally,
Hezbollah´s activities in south Lebanon are increasingly viewed
internationally as legitimate resistance to foreign occupation, and
the party plays an important role in the Lebanese parliament,
championing the cause of the dispossessed Shia community.
UNIFIL: The UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) was created
in response to Israel´s 1978 invasion. UNSCR 425 charged UNIFIL with
the task of confirming the withdrawal of Israeli forces, restoring
international peace and security, and assisting the Government of
Lebanon in ensuring the return of its effective authority in the
area. As of July 1999, the force consists of 4,500 personnel drawn
from nine countries. The force is deployed in a buffer strip to the
north of the occupation zone, although the areas of operation of
some battalions fall inside the zone. Although UNIFIL has been
unable to fulfill its mandate of supervising an Israeli withdrawal,
the force continues to provide valuable humanitarian assistance to
the residents of frontline areas.
Israeli Assaults North of the Occupation Zone: The IDF
conducted two major air and artillery campaigns against Lebanon in
the 1990s-the seven-day Operation Accountability offensive in July
1993 and the 16-day Operation Grapes of Wrath in April 1996.
Operation Accountability ended with an unwritten agreement that
neither the IDF nor Lebanese guerrillas would target civilians.
Operation Grapes of Wrath concluded with the 1993 agreement being
drawn up on paper-the April 1996 Understanding. A monitoring group
of delegates from the U.S., France, Syria, Israel, and Lebanon meets
regularly to assess breaches of the April Understanding. The Israeli
Air Force (IAF) conducts air raids north of the zone almost on a
daily basis, most of them in south Lebanon, but more occasionally
including Hezbollah targets in the northern Beqa´a Valley. Power
stations, bridges, and communication centers in Beirut and the south
were targeted in Operation Accountability and Operation Grapes of
Wrath, as well as in a series of air raids in June.
Human and Physical Costs: An estimated 20,000 Lebanese
civilians have been killed by the Israelis since 1978, while the IDF
reports that, since 1985, nine Israeli civilians have died, and 248
have been wounded. A total of 904 IDF soldiers have been killed in
south Lebanon since 1982, while 410 SLA soldiers have been killed
and 1,318 wounded since 1985. Since the establishment of UNIFIL in
1978, 222 peace-keepers have lost their lives in the conflict.
British analyst Patrick Seale questions the credibility of Israel´s
declared objective in the 1982 and 1996 operations, which was to
protect its northern settlements from guerrilla action. . . . From
1982 to 1996, not more than ten Israelis died in northern Israel
from Arab attack and this period includes the 1982 invasion itself,
which brought death to over 17,000 Lebanese and Palestinians-a kill
ratio of one Israeli for every 1,889 Lebanese or Palestinians
killed. Massive population displacement has also characterized the
occupation since its inception.
Only 100,000 of the original 250,000 residents from 1978 remain
today. The occupation and its attendant violence have fueled the
recession currently gripping the country and have discouraged
overseas investment, key to Lebanon´s economic revival.
The Syrian Factor: Syria has dominated every facet of the
political process in Lebanon since the Lebanese civil war ended in
1990. Syria´s direct involvement in Lebanon began in 1976, when
30,000 troops were deployed in the country to prevent a Christian
defeat in the first stage of the Lebanese civil war. Today, Syrian
troops number around 25,000, confined largely to the Beqa´a Valley.
Syria views Hezbollah´s operations against the Israeli army in south
Lebanon as legitimate resistance to occupation and links its
activities to future talks over the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights,
captured from Syria in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.
Lebanon and the Peace Process: Dominated by Syria, Lebanon is
coordinating its peace moves with Syria. Lebanon engaged in over a
dozen rounds of Washington talks with Israel following the 1991
Madrid Conference. The bilateral talks ended in February 1994,
however, when Israel broke off negotiations with Syria. There have
been no subsequent direct talks between Lebanon and Israel, although
Lebanese and Israeli delegates did meet at sessions of the April
1996 Understanding Monitoring Group. Technically, Lebanon remains at
war with Israel.
Prospects of an Israeli Withdrawal: Syrian President Hafez
al-Assad has signaled his willingness to resume direct negotiations
with Israel but reiterated his insistence on full Israeli withdrawal
from the Golan. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak is eager for a way
out of the south Lebanon quagmire-indeed, he pledged to withdraw
within one year-but his recent statements suggest that he is
contemplating only partial withdrawal from the Golan. Because Israel
cannot unilaterally remove its troops from Lebanon without risking
cross-border attacks from Hezbollah, the negotiations on the Golan
will take precedence over those on south Lebanon. The process will
not be without difficulties. Barak is likely to ask Syria for a
period of quiet in the south as a gesture of goodwill before
negotiations resume. Hezbollah, which has a relationship of
convenience with Syria but is ideologically, and financially, linked
to Iran, has vowed to continue fighting until the last IDF soldier
departs Lebanon, and may ignore requests to curtail military
operations in south Lebanon. The 367,000 dispossessed Palestinian
refugees in Lebanon represent the greater threat to the future
stability of the Lebanese-Israeli border, however. Numerous armed
Palestinian groups in south Lebanon´s refugee camps could
de-stabilize the border if their grievances are not addressed.
Nicholas Blanford reports on south Lebanon for The Daily Star
(Beirut). The above text may be used without permission but with
proper attribution to him and to CPAP. This brief does not
necessarily reflect the views of CPAP or The Jerusalem Fund.
