http://www.nytimes.com/2001/07/10/opinion/10JOHN.html
The Declining Terrorist Threat
By LARRY C. JOHNSON
The New York Times
July 10, 2001
WASHINGTON -- Judging from news reports and the portrayal of villains
in our popular entertainment, Americans are bedeviled by fantasies
about terrorism. They seem to believe that terrorism is the greatest
threat to the United States and that it is becoming more widespread
and lethal. They are likely to think that the United States is the
most popular target of terrorists. And they almost certainly have the
impression that extremist Islamic groups cause most terrorism.
None of these beliefs are based in fact. While many crimes are
committed against Americans abroad (as at home), politically inspired
terrorism, as opposed to more ordinary criminality motivated by simple
greed, is not as common as most people may think.
At first glance, things do seem to be getting worse. International
terrorist incidents, as reported by the State Department, increased to
423 in 2000 from 392 in 1999. Recently, Americans were shaken by
Filipino rebels' kidnapping of Americans and the possible beheading of
one hostage. But the overall terrorist trend is down. According to
the Central Intelligence Agency, deaths from international terrorism
fell to 2,527 in the decade of the 1990's, from 4,833 in the 80's.
Nor are the United States and its policies the primary target.
Terrorist activity in 2000 was heavily concentrated in just two
countries - Colombia, which had 186 incidents, and India, with 63. The
cause was these countries' own political conflicts.
While 82 percent of the attacks in Colombia were on oil pipelines
managed by American and British companies, these attacks were less
about terrorism than about guerrillas' goal of disrupting oil
production to undermine the Colombian economy. Generally, the
guerrillas shy away from causing casualties in these attacks. No
American oil workers in Colombia were killed or injured last year.
Other terrorism against American interests is rare. There were three
attacks on American diplomatic buildings in 2000, compared with 42 in
1988. No Americans were killed in these incidents, nor have there been
any deaths in this sort of attack this year.
Of the 423 international terrorist incidents documented in the State
Department's report "Patterns of Global Terrorism 2000," released in
April, only 153 were judged by the department and the C.I.A. to be
"significant." And only 17 of these involved American citizens or
businesses.
Eleven incidents involved kidnappings of one or more American
citizens, all of whom were eventually released. Seven of those
kidnapped worked for American companies in the energy business or
providing services to it - Halliburton, Shell, Chevron, Mobil, Noble
Drilling and Erickson Air-Crane.
Five bombings were on the list. The best known killed 17 American
sailors on the destroyer Cole, as it was anchored in a Yemeni port,
and wounded 39. A bomb at a McDonald's in France killed a local
citizen there. The other explosions - outside the United States
embassy in the Philippines, at a Citibank office in Greece, and in the
offices of Newmont Mining in Indonesia - caused mostly property damage
and no loss of life. In the 17th incident, vandals trashed a
McDonald's in South Africa.
The greatest risk is clear: if you are drilling for oil in Colombia -
or in nations like Ecuador, Nigeria or Indonesia - you should take
appropriate precautions; otherwise Americans have little to fear.
Although high-profile incidents have fostered the perception that
terrorism is becoming more lethal, the numbers say otherwise, and
early signs suggest that the decade beginning in 2000 will continue
the downward trend. A major reason for the decline is the current
reluctance of countries like Iraq, Syria and Libya, which once eagerly
backed terrorist groups, to provide safe havens, funding and training.
The most violent and least reported source of international terrorism
is the undeclared war between Islamists and Hindus over the disputed
Kashmir region of India, bordering Pakistan. Although India came in
second in terms of the number of terrorist incidents in 2000, with 63,
it accounted for almost 50 percent of all resulting deaths, with 187
killed, and injuries, with 337 hurt. Most of the blame lies with
radical groups trained in Afghanistan and operating from Pakistan.
I am not soft on terrorism; I believe strongly in remaining prepared
to confront it. However, when the threat of terrorism is used to
justify everything from building a missile defense to violating
constitutional rights (as in the case of some Arab-Americans
imprisoned without charge), it is time to take a deep breath and
reflect on why we are so fearful.
Part of the blame can be assigned to 24-hour broadcast news operations
too eager to find a dramatic story line in the events of the day and
to pundits who repeat myths while ignoring clear empirical data.
Politicians of both parties are also guilty. They warn constituents of
dire threats and then appropriate money for redundant military
installations and new government investigators and agents.
Finally, there are bureaucracies in the military and in intelligence
agencies that are desperate to find an enemy to justify budget growth.
In the 1980's, when international terrorism was at its zenith, NATO
and the United States European Command pooh-poohed the notion of
preparing to fight terrorists. They were too busy preparing to fight
the Soviets. With the evil empire gone, they "discovered" terrorism
as an important priority.
I hope for a world where facts, not fiction, determine our policy.
While terrorism is not vanquished, in a world where thousands of
nuclear warheads are still aimed across the continents, terrorism is
not the biggest security challenge confronting the United States, and
it should not be portrayed that way.
Larry C. Johnson is a former State Department counterterrorism
specialist.
