http://www.smh.com.au/news/0110/25/world/world9.html
Control of Central Asia's oil is the real goal
By Ben Aris in Moscow and Ahmed Rashid in Lahore, 10/25/2001
For all the talk of international alliances and the future of
Afghanistan, the real game in Central Asia is control of the region's
lucrative oil supply.
Since the fall of the Iron Curtain, Russia has kept Central Asia's
huge oil and gas reserves bottled up by restricting access to export
pipelines - all of which run over Russian territory.
The United States has been pushing alternative pipeline projects out
of the region that do not run over Russian soil.
The US National Security Adviser, Condoleeza Rice, assured the Kremlin
last week that Washington had no designs on Central Asia even as a new
oil pipeline started up, strengthening Russia's influence in the
region.
One of the main reasons that Washington supported the Taliban between
1994 and 1997 was the attempt by the US oil giant Unocal to build a
gas pipeline from Turkmenistan, through Taliban-controlled southern
Afghanistan, to Pakistan and the Persian Gulf. At the time, the US and
Unocal hoped the Taliban would swiftly conquer the country.
When the first tanker at the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossisk was
loaded with oil pumped from Kazakhstan through the Caspian Pipeline
Consortium's pipeline, it looked like the rivalry between Moscow and
Washington was over. But as US interests intensify in the region,
Moscow is nervous about giving Washington a toehold.
Dr Rice's statements were designed to allay fears. She said in an
article in the Russian daily Izvestia: "I want to stress this: our
policy is not aimed against the interests of Russia. We do not harbour
any plans aimed at squeezing Russia out of there."
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have some of the largest reserves of oil
and gas in the world, but Russia cut them off from international
markets as all their export pipelines run over Russian territory. The
US tried aggressively to break the Kremlin's stranglehold over the
region, but Dr Rice's comments were the strongest sign yet that
Washington is prepared to concede Russia's dominance of the region.
US-Russian relations have been recast since the terrorist attacks in
America.
In a brave decision, President Vladimir Putin thumbed his nose at
Russia's generals still labouring under Cold War prejudices and gave
the go-ahead for Central Asian states to play host to US forces.
Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are allied to Moscow through the Russian-led
Commonwealth of Independent States, and have donated airfields.
After a decade of grand promises of an oil pipeline by international
oil firms failed to materialise, Kazakhstan has sided with the
Russians.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium's line is the first big one to be
built since the fall of the Soviet Union. Led by Chevron, CPC brought
together the governments of Kazakhstan, Russia and Oman, as well as
several other oil companies, for financing.
Most of the 1,850-kilometre route runs across Russian territory.
The war in Afghanistan may have brought an end to America's ambitions
in the area as a quid pro quo for Russia's co-operation in the US-led
campaign. But when peace and a stable government eventually comes to
Kabul, US oil companies will be looking closely at Afghanistan because
it offers the shortest route to the Gulf for Central Asia's vast
quantities of untapped oil and gas.
The companies have invested $US30billion ($59billion) in developing
oil and gas fields in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and
Azerbaijan but exporting to the West involves lengthy and expensive
pipelines.
Washington is currently proposing a $US3billion pipeline from
Azerbaijan, on the Caspian Sea, through Georgia, to Turkey's
Mediterranean coast - a lengthy and expensive project.
US companies could build a similar pipeline from Central Asia through
Afghanistan to Karachi at half the cost, if the next Afghan government
can guarantee its security.
Russia fears that is exactly what the Americans want and, now that US
troops are based in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, they will not leave.
The Telegraph, London
